(Bloomberg) — Copper and silver futures in New York are surging above rival international price benchmarks as traders ramp up bets that Donald Trump will impose hefty import tariffs on the metals as part of a broader escalation of his global trade war.
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Front-month Comex silver futures traded at above an $0.80-an-ounce premium over spot bullion prices set in London on Thursday, nearing a peak seen in December as traders reacted to Trump’s pledges to apply universal tariffs on all goods from all countries. That would include key economic adversaries like China and trading partners such as Canada and Mexico.
The fresh spike in premiums comes as uncertainty and anxiety over the likely scope of Trump’s trade policies ramps up across financial markets ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration. The Washington Post reported his team are planning narrower import tariffs on critical goods, potentially including copper, though Trump denied the story. And on Wednesday, CNN said Trump is weighing declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal ground for universal tariffs, citing people familiar with the matter.
“Investors around the world have started the year looking for protection against sticky and potentially rising inflation, fiscal debt worries and the unpredictability of Trump,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. The blowout in Comex prices is “is definitely part of the Trump unpredictability story.”
Front-month Comex copper also traded at a $623-a-ton premium over equivalent futures set on the London Metal Exchange, nearing record levels seen during a historic short squeeze that rocked the global copper market last year. Traders have been rushing to ship copper into US warehouses to cash in on the spike in prices since last year, and similar efforts have been underway since New York silver prices started to take off.
But while the price dislocations present big opportunities for traders with metal on hand to deliver into Comex warehouses, they also create huge risks for investors who don’t.
Prices in the New York and London metals markets normally trade in near lockstep, and many algorithmic traders and hedge funds seek to make money with wagers that any pricing gaps that do appear will close up again quickly.
