Want to replicate the massive growth of Tesla? This stock is your ticket.
Everyone wants to find the next Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). But investing in the electric vehicle (EV) space can be difficult. Many EV companies have gone bankrupt over the years, and separating the good from the bad can be difficult.
Thankfully, Tesla established a clear template for success. And right now, there’s one EV stock that looks extremely attractive. But there’s only one investment strategy likely to succeed.
This is how Tesla became a massive success
In 2006, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan” to the public. “As you know, the initial product of Tesla Motors is a high-performance electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster,” his essay began. “However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars.”
Musk summarized the master plan for Tesla:
- Build a sports car
- Use that money to build an affordable car
- Use that money to build an even more affordable car
Today, Tesla is a huge symbol of success when it comes to executing on long-term visions. The Tesla Roadster was a success, but given its $100,000-plus price point, its market was always small.
Tesla needed to prove its manufacturing chops, and show the public that EVs could be cool and exciting. It used this success to design, build, and deliver two new models: The Model S and Model X. These models were still expensive, but introduced Tesla to hundreds of thousands of new owners.
Tesla then used its reputation and access to capital to debut two new mass market models, the Model 3 and Model Y. These two models, with much more affordable price points, allowed Tesla to grow its revenue by more than 1,000% over the last decade.
TSLA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.
Tesla’s master plan worked wonders for its valuation. The company is currently worth around $800 billion. Another company, meanwhile, is valued at just $11 billion — yet it’s executing Tesla’s proven master plan flawlessly.
Rivian could be the next big EV stock
When it comes to following Tesla’s template for success, few EV companies look as attractive as Rivian (RIVN 3.85%).
In 2018, Rivian announced the debut of its R1T and R1S models. Like Tesla’s earlier models, the R1T and R1S were ultra-luxury, high-quality, no-compromise vehicles with price points that could easily surpass $100,000 with certain options. Consumer feedback was fantastic. Consumer Reports found that Rivian has the highest customer satisifcation and loyalty levels of any auto manufacturer — electric or otherwise. Around 86% of Rivian owners said they would buy another Rivian. No other brand was above the 80% mark.
What will Rivian do with its newfound reputation and sales base? Exactly what Tesla did: Build more affordable cars. Earlier this year, the company revealed three new models: The R2, R3, and R3X. All are expected to debut with starting prices under $50,000. It was meeting this price point that helped put Tesla on the map for millions of people. If Rivian can execute, it should prove very successful.
If Rivian can replicate Tesla’s success, why is its market cap hovering just above $10 billion? First, its new models aren’t expected to hit the road until 2026 at the earliest. Second, the required manufacturing facilities aren’t even complete yet. Third, the company is still losing money at a rapid clip since vehicle manufacturing is capital intensive. However, management expects to reach positive gross profits by the end of 2024. Finally, Rivian is trying to compete in a market segment — electric vehicles — that has seen many bankruptcies over the years.
It’s clear that the market is skeptical of Rivian’s plans, even though it is executing on a proven model for growth, and has demonstrated its ability to manufacture vehicles that customers love. The next few years, however, will be pivotal. Rivian will become a household name like Tesla if it can execute, a result that will likely see a rapid expansion in its valuation.
There’s no guarantee that the company will retain its ability to tap capital markets affordably or get its manufacturing capabilities up and running quickly. It will have to market its vehicles in a hypercompetitive industry. Yet it is this uncertainty that provides patient investors with a lucrative entry point for Rivian stock right now. If you can remain patient, Rivian’s rise could eventually mirror Tesla’s.
