Social Security is staring down the barrel of a full-on crisis.
President Donald Trump promised seniors he would protect Social Security during his campaign in 2024. And since taking office in January, he’s set to work authorizing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to cut what it deems as unnecessary administrative expenses and work on reducing fraud. Cuts in staffing, building leases, IT contracts, and other overhead expenses are expected to save $800 million per year.
Social Security is on the path to benefits cuts across the board for every household receiving a monthly check. So, every penny counts when it comes to protecting Social Security. The Trump administration will have you believe these cuts are necessary to reduce the deficit and improve the health of the program.
The truth is, it’s not enough — not by a long shot.
Image source: The White House.
Waste and fraud is not the issue
The challenge facing Social Security stems from shifting demographics. With baby boomers retiring and living longer, the total benefits paid out by Social Security are growing larger and larger every year. As more people reach the age of eligibility, the ratio of beneficiaries to workers continues to increase. That’s exacerbated by declining birth rates, which will accelerate the challenge over the coming years.
Due to the demographic shifts, the program has been running a deficit for several years. The Social Security trustees expect to deplete the trust fund used to invest excess revenue for Social Security by the year 2033. At that point, it will only have enough incoming tax revenue to support 79% of benefits due to retirees.
This isn’t exactly a new problem. The trustees have been ringing the alarm on Social Security for over 30 years. Congress has failed to take corrective measures, merely kicking the can to the next group of legislators.
Indeed, this isn’t a problem the executive branch can handle alone. But the Trump administration’s efforts to cut back on Social Security spending aren’t going to make a financial impact. The Social Security trustees expect the retirement program to run a deficit of $180.7 billion this year. The DOGE cuts will effectively round that number down to about $180 billion.
As mentioned, the problem is getting worse. The trustees expect the annual deficit to double by 2032 before depleting the trust fund.
If Donald Trump truly wants to protect Social Security, it will require breaking several promises he made on the campaign trail and pushing Congress to act.
Where to focus efforts to protect Social Security
There are several proposals put forth that could prevent Social Security’s impending crisis. (Note, none of them deal with cutting administrative expenses or eliminating fraud.)
The main levers Congress can pull to extend the life of Social Security are cutting benefits and raising taxes. Those are two things Trump has said he won’t do. Unfortunately, they may be the only answers to ensure future Social Security recipients don’t end up receiving a forced benefit cut.
Cutting benefits could come in the form of raising the full retirement age, increasing penalties for early applications, or reducing the benefit for delaying beyond full retirement age. Raising taxes could come in the form of higher payroll tax rates, increasing the limit on the amount of wages subject to the tax, or both.
Meanwhile, Trump has suggested eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits themselves, which are an important source of revenue for the program. Eliminating taxes on benefits would unfairly benefit wealthy retirees while placing a larger burden on younger workers.
It’s very likely everyone, young and old, will have to make some sacrifices to ensure the long-term health of Social Security. A few office closures and staffing cuts aren’t going to be enough.