If you’ve earned elite status with your favorite airline or recently moved up a status level, you might be wondering how often you should expect to get upgraded to business class.
I wish I could tell you things like, “With Delta SkyMiles Silver status, you can expect to be upgraded about X% of the time,” but unfortunately it isn’t that simple. It depends on several factors, and some travelers can experience far more success with complimentary upgrades than others.
With that in mind, by understanding the factors that determine your upgrade probability, you can be a little more strategic when it comes to selecting flights where an upgrade is more likely. Here are five factors in particular that can determine whether you’re likely to get a free business class upgrade on your next flight.
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1. Your elite status level
First, and most obvious, one major factor is your elite status level. I’ll use American Airlines’ AAdvantage program as an example, as it’s the one I’m a member of, but the same idea applies to most major airlines’ frequent flyer programs.
In the AAdvantage program, there are five status tiers, listed in descending order:
- Concierge Key (this one is by invitation only)
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
When the airlines decide who gets a free upgrade, they first rank travelers by status. Within each level, there are usually tie-breakers, such as who earned more qualifying points or who has one of the airline’s credit cards. But in the above list, those with Executive Platinum status will be in a higher spot on the upgrade list than those with Platinum Pro status, and so on.
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2. What route are you flying?
Some routes are more commonly used by leisure travelers, while others are more frequently used for business travel. It’s not uncommon for there to be a dozen top-tier status members on routes like New York City to Los Angeles, for example.
More business travelers typically means more competition for upgrades. Not only are business travelers more likely to have elite status than leisure travelers are, but many simply buy business class seats since their company is paying.
3. What day and time are you flying?
Continuing with the business traveler theme, the date and time you travel matters as well. Business flyers tend to fly during the week, and in times that aren’t in the middle of the day. For example, early morning flights are often full of elite status flyers (especially on Mondays).
4. How full is business class a few days before the trip?
If business class is nearly sold out at the time you book your ticket, the upgrade probability is much lower than if it is almost empty within a few days or weeks of the flight time. If a lot of people purchased business class tickets for your flight, it can leave few seats available for upgrades.
5. How much does it cost to upgrade?
To the dismay of many elite flyers, many airlines have started to sell upgrades to flyers who have purchased main cabin tickets. And in some cases, the cost of upgrading can be rather low.
You may also find that the cost of a business class ticket in some cases isn’t much more than a main cabin flight. When recently searching for a round-trip flight to Washington, D.C., I found a fare of roughly $260 for a main cabin seat, or a relatively budget-friendly $320 cost for business class. If this is the case, it’s not uncommon for the business class cabin to be completely booked before anyone gets an upgrade.
The bottom line
There’s no way to know for sure how often you’ll be upgraded after you achieve elite status with an airline, as there are many different variables at play. There are routes where I almost always get upgraded even as an AAdvantage Gold member, and there are routes where it’s virtually impossible, even with Executive Platinum status.
By knowing the factors discussed earlier and using them to your advantage, you can certainly increase your odds. But the fact remains that the only way to guarantee yourself a large, comfy seat in the front of the plane is to pay for it.
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