Here's Why Disney's Recent Box Office Bombs Really Shouldn't Matter Much to Investors

It’s been a rough past few months for Walt Disney‘s (DIS 1.83%) film business. For instance, while February’s release of Captain America: Brave New World produced a respectable $414 million in ticket sales, that’s far from the billion-dollar box office that many Marvel movies have generated. Some fear that result was an indication of action-movie fatigue, which could prove devastating to a studio that also owns the Star Wars franchise.

Then there was March’s disastrous release of Snow White. Although the live-action remake of the beloved 1937 animated film was ballyhooed and well-promoted, its $200 million worldwide take doesn’t even cover the studio’s estimated cost to make the movie. It would also be naïve to pretend this particular film’s weak showing wasn’t in part a reflection of a larger shift in the sociocultural dynamic that may not abate anytime soon.

Walt Disney shareholders have seemingly paid the price for its film unit’s recent struggles. Shortly after shares’ mid-November post-earnings surge, the sellers went back to work and didn’t let up until they had dragged Disney stock to a new multimonth low in April. Shares have partially bounced back since then, but a prolonged recovery remains in doubt. The market may be waiting for whatever clarity the company’s upcoming quarterly earnings report might offer.

To the extent the stock’s recent poor performance has reflected concerns about Disney’s floundering film business, though, investors could be making a big mistake. See, the media giant’s movie arm isn’t actually terribly important to the company.

Walt Disney’s business mix isn’t what you might think it is

Some investors might disagree with that assessment. And to be fair, there’s no denying that movies are what made Disney the powerhouse it is today. Many of its earliest theme park attractions — and then its toys and television programs — featured characters and concepts that first appeared on the silver screen.

The world has changed a great deal since then, however, and Disney has changed with it.

The advent of streaming is obviously one of those changes, but hardly the only one. Even though cable television is struggling now, its rise was a boon for many, many studios, including Disney’s. Consumers are more likely to travel now than they were in earlier eras as well. There’s also no denying that consumerism — the purchase of “stuff” — is a much bigger business than it used to be.

Walt Disney has capitalized on all of these sociocultural shifts, and the result has displaced films from their position among its major breadwinners.

The graphic below tells the tale, comparing the revenue produced by each of Disney’s different arms since late 2022, when the public health crisis phase of the COVID-19 pandemic finally began winding down and the movie theater business began operating in earnest again. As you can see, films are a small minority of the company’s business, consistently accounting for less than one-tenth of its top line. Theme parks, resorts, ESPN, and now streaming are its biggest revenue sources.

Films provide an even smaller share of Disney’s operating income, by the way. Meanwhile, the company’s streaming business is on pace to become more profitable than its movie arm.

The stock’s primed for a turnaround, but investors must first see why

Bottom line? If you’re avoiding Disney stock at this time solely because a few of its recent films have been disappointments — if not outright bombs — you’re focused on the wrong thing. Walt Disney’s biggest and most profitable (and more consistent) arms like theme parks and streaming are actually doing pretty well despite the challenging economic environment. Indeed, despite yet another recent round of ticket price increases, its theme parks are still as crowded as they’ve ever been.

Let’s also not forget that many of this company’s movies are also launching points for toys or streaming content that’s exclusively featured at Disney+. So even if they’re not all box office blockbusters, the film studio still serves an important business-building purpose.

The market might start to recognize all of this come May 7, when the company is scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter numbers.

Of course, for Disney stock to rebound convincingly, this intracompany dynamic will need to be presented in a way that investors understand… something most people seem to have forgotten of late. Let’s see if that changes in the next few days.