General Mills (GIS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

General Mills (GIS -4.25%)
Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Dec 18, 2024, 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to General Mills’ second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Siemon, vice president of investor relations and treasurer. Thank you.

Please go ahead.

Jeff Siemon — Vice President, Investor Relations

Hi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Julianne. We appreciate you all joining us today for our Q&A session on our second quarter fiscal 2025 results. I hope you all had time to review our press release, listen to the prepared remarks, and view our presentation materials which we made available this morning on our investor relations website.

It’s important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions, and so please refer to this morning’s press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information which we may discuss on today’s call. I’m joined this morning by Jeff Harmening, our chairman and CEO; Kofi Bruce, our CFO; Dana McNabb, group president of North America retail; and Jon Nudi, group president of our North America pet, foodservice, and our international segments. Before we open for questions, I’m going to hand it over to Jeff Harmening for a few opening remarks.

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

All right. Thanks, Jeff. And as he said, before we get into Q&A and a more detailed business discussion, let me lay out kind of an overarch perspective. And I go back to June, we laid out our plans for fiscal ’25.

And then we said our top priority for this year is to accelerate our organic sales growth and specifically our volume growth, and we do that by leveraging a remarkable experience framework to improve our market share. And through the first half of the year, we’ve executed that plan, and we’re seeing good results with broad-based improvements in our volume and our share trends. And we’ve done that by stepping up our investment in the business above our original plan in response to a more prolonged, and I would say, significant value-seeking behaviors in the part of consumers. We’re bringing more value to consumers across all aspects of our total product offering, including increased product renovation news, increased brand building, and promotional support.

And as I said, these investments are working. Leaning into our greening and superior messaging, for example, on Blue Buffalo pet food business has led us back to growth. Strong brand campaigns and innovation have helped return our U.S. cereal business to pound share growth.

And we drove accelerated retail sales performance and some other really important U.S. categories, including food snacks and Mexican foods, soups, snack bars, as well as foodservice channels and many of our international markets. But we do have other work to do in other places like on U.S. refrigerated dough, so we’re adjusting our plans there and already have adjusted our plans there, to ensure that Pillsbury brings more value to consumers across a broader portion of our portfolio.

And so stepping back, we are confident in our strategy and the investments we’re making to further improve our momentum in the back half of the year. And while stepping up our investment is impacting our profit outlook for the back half of the year, I am very confident that it’s the right choice to position us for stronger growth in fiscal ’26 and beyond. And so with that, Jeff, I’ll turn it back to you, and let’s get started on the Q&A.

Jeff Siemon — Vice President, Investor Relations

OK. Sounds good. Julianne, I think we can go ahead and get started with the first question, please.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Certainly. [Operator instructions] Our first question today will come from Andrew Lazar from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Andrew Lazar — Analyst

Thanks so much. Good morning, and happy holidays, everybody.

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar — Analyst

Jeff, as you mentioned, this fiscal year was always meant to be about sort of improving in-market competitiveness across the portfolio. And just now that we’re halfway through, I still have to get a better sense on sort of what learnings you’ve taken away from maybe the initial efforts and how those learnings are kind of informing your back-half education, particularly in light of sort of the planned incremental spend. Is it that you now see the consumer is just more ready to engage than before and maybe better adjusting their reference price points or simply just realizing that it requires more spend than had originally anticipated to drive sort of the requisite volume, even outside of refrigerated dough? So I guess I’m just trying to get a better sense on sort of where the consumer is at this point, and maybe how much of the incremental investment is specific to dough versus some of the other brands in the portfolio?

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Thanks, Andrew. I think we’ve learned a couple of things, so we’ll start with the consumer, as you said. I mean, it’s clear that from the beginning of the year to now, the consumer is — we’ve seen more prolonged value-seeking behavior than we anticipated back in June, and that manifests itself in a couple of ways.

I mean, one is the consumer is doing more at home, which is good, so you see our categories are growing. And you see at-home consumption being about 87% of total consumption which is quite high, and that’s because eating away from home is about four times more expensive than eating at home. So we’ve seen this increased value behavior. And so — in the sense, it benefits the growth of our categories, and you see our categories growing.

But what it also does is it means within our categories, consumers are seeking behavior, and that takes a lot of different forms. And certainly, price is one of those things. And so what we have seen in the year on our business is as we have increased our investments, broadly speaking, whether that’s in renovation or it’s advertising, whether that’s in promotional activity, the things that we’re doing are working, and so we feel good about that. It’s just going to take a little — obviously, it’s just going to take a little bit more than we had anticipated.

And I think the — what I would say, Andrew, you asked about how we see it on dough versus other things. What I would say is that we’ve — as we look across the different categories, we’ve seen — we made investments across a wide variety of categories, including in value. But within those categories, we’ve done it in some pretty specific and targeted ways. And I think maybe it might be good at this point, just to have maybe Jon and then Dana share a little bit on that.

And then North America retail in a couple of categories, you get a flavor of what those kind of targeted investments will look like. So, Jon, why don’t we start with you and then pass it over to Dana?

Jonathon J. Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Absolutely. Hi, Andrew. So we’re really pleased with the progress we’re making on pet. And if you think about our biggest businesses, it’s Life Protection Formula, as well as Wilderness, and really it’s not price investment.

It’s advertising investment that’s driving our business. PF is growing high single digits. We love what we’re seeing as we’ve gotten back to ingredient superiority advertising really works for us. On Wilderness, we’re not all the way home.

But at this time last year, in Q2, we were down 18%. This year, we’re down mid-single digits. In every single week, we make progress, and we really believe that we’re going to bend the trend and get back to growth in the back half of the year. And that’s really about approaching messaging.

It’s about bringing back grain-free SKUs and really making sure that we have sizes that are really fit for consumers. If anything, from a price standpoint in pet, it’s really been in dog wet, as well as dog treats, where we’ve got adjusted a few price points. We’re actually seeing that really pay off for us in terms of pound volume coming back, at the same time, making progress from a dollar standpoint. So for us, in Blue, really proud of the team, really proud of the progress.

It’s probably more about advertising than it is about price investment at this point.

Dana McNabb — Group President, North America Retail

And from a North America retail perspective, what I would say is similar to what Jon said. We look at investment as broader than just price value. We use a framework called the Remarkable Experience framework to try to assess where we are at relative to the competition across our product offering, whether that’s product, packaging, communications, price. From a price standpoint, we had to make a few targeted investments, but it’s not everywhere.

It’s on the refrigerated baked goods business, as we’ve talked about, a little bit fruit snacks, a little bit on our Totino’s business. But I want to reiterate that this is again more than just investment in price. If we look at other areas in refrigerated baked goods where we’re investing, we’re really seeing them work. Look at our cookie line, that’s about a third of our business.

It’s up high single digits behind new capacity that we’ve added. Our campaign where we brought back the Dough Boy, really resonating with consumers. Our new products are up 10%. We’re seeing our cereal campaigns really well.

So yes, we’re having to invest in price in targeted areas, but we’re also leaning in on areas that are really resonating with the consumer, and we believe this investment will return for us in the back half of the year.

Andrew Lazar — Analyst

Great. Thanks so much. Have a great holiday, everybody.

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Andrew.

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Peter Peter Galbo — Analyst

Hey, guys. Good morning. Happy holidays. Thanks for the question.

Dana, maybe just to pick up on the back of Andrew’s question there. I think I heard you say that the incremental investment in the back half is targeted. I do think there’s some concern this morning that it’s more broad based so just wanted to clarify on that. And just part b of that question is really how do you think about — is this enough? Obviously, you came into the year, you had certain plans.

You’re now accelerating that. How do you get confidence around the fact that the investments you’re making now are going to be enough, such that in three, six, nine months, we’re not necessarily revisiting this again?

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So let me — you asked for Dana, so let me kind of provide a little context and then have Dana maybe provide some specifics. So there’s this question about is it broad based or is it targeted. What I would say is that we’re investing in value across different categories.

So in that sense, it’s broad. But then within particular categories, it’s not as if we’re increasing value on every single thing that we do. It’s really targeted within categories and increasing investments in the places that matter most. So I know there’s a question about targeted versus broad.

I would say there’s across a few different categories we’re making investments. But within those categories, they’re very targeted. I think Dana started already with Pillsbury, which was a good example on cookies, where it’s really advertising and capacity. But in some other places, it’s more price.

So, Dana, you may want to give a couple of examples of investments.

Dana McNabb — Group President, North America Retail

Yeah. Good morning, Pete. I mean, my answer is what we just talked about with Andrew in the sense that the price investments are targeted. They’re in areas like we talked about with refrigerated baked goods, a little bit Totino’s, a little bit fruit snacks.

But again, not everywhere. And in terms of is it enough, I do believe that we put investment into the areas that our analytics show will provide the best return. And we’ll watch the response, and then we’ll pivot as we learn more.

Peter Peter Galbo — Analyst

OK. No. That’s helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on pet as well.

I think if you kind of remove the retailer lap from last year, you probably still would have been up on an organic basis in pet sales, which is encouraging. I’m just curious kind of how you think about the context of that underlying momentum into the back half.

Thanks again.

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Jon, why don’t you take that one?

Jonathon J. Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Yeah, absolutely. So, Pete, you’re exactly right. So we did see sales exceed movement by about 4 points in the quarter, and you’re right about fiscal ’24 Q2 and really fiscal ’23 Q2 as well, we saw the opposite. So we’re really just getting back to average inventory levels.

And important is we really look at our key customers’ inventory levels that are right where we’d expect them to be. So again, we don’t expect any inventory issues as we head to the back half of the year. And overall, we really like the trends we’re seeing on the business. The first quarter that we’ve been able to hold dollar share in 11 quarters.

We’re back pound share growth for the year. Our biggest businesses are performing well, like I said, and I feel like we’ve got really strong plans to get treats performing better in the back half of the year. That’s probably the last business we want see an inflection on as we move, so we feel really good about where we’re trending and don’t anticipate any big inventory issues as we had in the back half of the year as well.

Peter Peter Galbo — Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ken Goldman — Analyst

Hi. Thanks very much. I wanted to ask a little bit, just in light of the — of Kofi, your comments about, I think, the — most of the benefits, the one-time benefits in terms of trade inventory and the timing of spend in 2Q, that flipping into — or reversal in 3Q. Is there any more color you can provide us on kind of how you want us to think about the shape of the third quarter, either relative to last year or relative to 2Q? Obviously, we can do some of the math but just wanted to get a better sense for how that all flows into the bottom line.

Kofi A. Bruce — Chief Financial Officer

Sure. And I will answer probably mostly to the lens of the second half and give you a little bit of shading and perspective on how that weighs in Q3. So as I mentioned in my remarks, there’s about an op profit, about a 6-point benefit in the quarter for a variety of timing items. Thanksgiving holiday sitting in Q3 this year versus in the last week of Q2 last year, additional pipeline build outside of Thanksgiving and seasonal businesses are, and then phasing on trade and HMM that fell into the quarter benefited and provide a tailwind in Q2.

So the combination of those things are about 6 points of benefit. And as you move into the back half, and if you take our guidance — implied guidance midpoint, we’ll give you about an 8-point decline in operating profit in the back half. About 3 points of that comes from the reversal of those timing benefits, most of which is going to hit in Q3. And then we got about 2 points from the instant reset, which we expected and flagged at the beginning of the year.

And then there’s about 3 points from additional investment as we layer in spend in the back half to show our competitiveness as we mentioned earlier. So that gives you awfully the structure. Hopefully, that answered your question, Ken.

Ken Goldman — Analyst

OK. Thank you for that. And then a little bit of a random question. But just seeing double-digit declines in your Haagen-Dazs business in stores.

I appreciate that you’re looking to sort of diversify the channels that you work with there but how sustainable do you see that double-digit decline? What is your outlook there? And is there any chance — I guess, I’m getting at that you’ll consider kind of the broader footprint of that retail store business that you have there?

Jonathon J. Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Ken, this is Jon, I want to take that. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Jeff. So we’re absolutely looking at our footprint of stores in China. I talked over the last couple of years, we’ve actually closed quite a few underperforming stores.

And clearly, focus is really on retail, as well as foodservice, where we see better margins and really the better opportunity for growth moving forward. So the macroeconomic backdrop is tough right now. Again, traffic is down, which is a challenge. But at the same time, we’re actually growing our retail business in China.

So we’ll continue to want to make that switch, really focus on really our most profitable stores moving forward, and that’s something that we’ve been working out for a period of time here. From a profit standpoint, you’ll know that international was down quite a bit this quarter. That was really, first of all, a small number. And then secondly, we were lagging an insurance recovery on Haagen-Dazs last year.

So while top line is down a bit, I would say that profit isn’t as bad as what we’re printing at this point, and we’re very clearly focused on improving our trends coming our of China as well.

Ken Goldman — Analyst

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Leah Jordan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Leah Jordan — Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. It looks like you raised your input cost inflation for the year to 4% from 3% to 4% last year.

Just think if you could provide more color on the drivers behind that. Where are you seeing the most pressure across your portfolio? And how do you think about your ability to mitigate some of that going forward?

Kofi A. Bruce — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks for the question, Leah. So that is absolutely a fair assessment of how we read the year. A couple of things that I’d give you just as framing. As you think about input costs, in particular, our ingredient costs and some of our total manufacturing where there’s a high conversion cost linked to labor, that is passed through.

And that actually still remains sticky and a little bit more inflationary than we’d expect.In addition, we’re lapping several large contracts, packaging, dairy, our EU business, sugar where we had advantage prices that were kind of locked in right before the inflationary period. And so as we step off those, we’re seeing some pressure points there. So those are those kind of the big ones. And then in addition to that, we do have a smaller exposure to items, which have been much in the news, in particular cocoa and fats and oils that remain pressure points.

And then as you think about the second part of your question, how do we feel — look, I think we’re driving 5% HMM this year, and we continue to have confidence in our ability to drive at least the 4% historical run rate we’ve been driving. We’re getting benefits from digitization in our supply chain that’s providing benefits in manufacturing and logistics, reducing waste, and providing better service. So I think we feel pretty good about our prospects of addressing inflation in roughly this range.

Leah Jordan — Analyst

Thank you. And I just step away from the quarter for a minute and just talk about the regulatory environment. We have a combination of page here but just could you discuss what you’re thinking about any potential impacts you see to your business. And I’ve seen that there’s any — any dialog?

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

OK. Sorry, there was a bit of a bad connection there. I think what I heard was a question on regulatory environment and any potential impact you see to the business. We’ll go with that.

Hopefully, I got that question. We got about one every two words. So if I don’t answer the question, just know we’re not trying to get around it. I just didn’t hear all of it clearly.

But look, I do appreciate the question. First, it’s pretty early to talk about broadly what’s going to happen in the regulatory environment. What I can tell you is that we have and we always will follow what every regulations are in place, whether they’re state regulations or whether they’re federal regulations. The other thing I can tell you is that, I mean, we’ve got a great R&D team and very agile.

And we’ve been navigating regulatory environments for nearly 160 years and doing so really effectively. Let me give you a couple of examples that I think might be helpful. As you think about our foodservice business, which you saw this quarter and for the last many quarters has been doing really well, a lot of that business is through K-12 schools. And the USDA has nationwide nutrition standards which they change every five to 10 years or so.

And coincidentally, they’re going to change in the next school year in ’25 or ’26. And in that environment, when those have changed, General Mills has grown and grown share. And it’s not an accident. And it’s because we’re able to reformulate our products, frankly, better and more effectively than our competitors and provide nutritional value, as well as great taste and values and brands that the kids love and that the school operators like.

And so as a result, for example, our cereal share in schools is more than twice what it is in retail. And so as we think about the regulatory environment and our ability to navigate it, just know that we have been navigating regulatory environments. And even though it’s tough to predict what’s going to come, I’m confident in our ability to navigate through these things. The last thing I think might be helpful as we think about what might come to pass is kind of what already is, and that is what’s happening in California, where those legislations have been passed about certified colors and food that goes into effect in 2027.

And with that, about 85% of our cereal portfolio is already compliant, and the rest of it will be compliant by ’27. So as we think about the regulatory environment, I mean, obviously, we take it seriously. Food safety, we take very seriously, and we’re going to follow all the regulations but know that I’m wildly confident in our ability to pivot because we have been able to do that historically.

Leah Jordan — Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

[Audio gap] from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Unknown speaker — BNP Paribas — Analyst

Hey, thanks for the question. It’s nice to see the progress in your own pet results with the return to growth and the continued progress on market share, and I think this is suggestive of the success you’re having with the action plans that you’ve laid out and improving your own competitiveness. But I’m curious for any updated thoughts you have on the broader pet food industry, particularly given pet population growth appears to be muted right now, maybe following some normalization post COVID. And then more recently, there’s been news in New York State regarding spanning the retail sales of dogs and cats.

So just curious for broader thoughts on the food industry beyond your own success on competitiveness.

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I’ll let you take that one. And the comment on New York state, that’s a stuffer. But I’ll — Jon, I’ll let you answer the rest of —

Jonathon J. Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Yeah. You got it. So I think what we’re seeing in the categories that really turned more pre-pandemic type of trends, and you’re seeing dollars come back to the category. You’re seeing segments, like treats, that have been a bit more challenging to get a bit better over time as well.

So I think we’re getting back to more normal levels of growth in the category. Will we see a surge in adoption like we did at COVID? Likely not, But again, I don’t think we need to see a lot of the population growth over time. I think getting back to where we were pre pandemic led to a healthy category and healthy dynamics. Encouragingly, for us, we’re actually seeing premium bounce back a bit as well more recently, so it does feel like we’re getting back to some of the trends that we saw pre pandemic with humanization, premiumization really leading the way.

And we like where we sit. The Blue Buffalo brand is incredibly strong. I think you’re aware, we announced the acquisition of Whitebridge Pet brands. We’re excited about getting bigger in cat wet, which is the fastest-growing segment in the category.

So we like the category a lot, and we like our position as we move forward.

Unknown speaker — BNP Paribas — Analyst

Great. And then a follow-up on the U.S. cereal business. So you called it out in the prepared remarks.

So in the last couple of weeks, we’ve definitely seen some improvement in trends in terms of your sales growth and particularly your dollar share. It sounds like you attribute it to consumer news, advertising, and merchandising execution. But just any more color on what you’re seeing in cereal, how you frame the competitive environment, and what you think about your back half expectations there? Thanks very much. I’ll leave it there.

Dana McNabb — Group President, North America Retail

Great. Thanks for the question. As you noted, we did see an improvement in our retail sales trends on both dollars and pounds. We grew pound share, and we’ve really been focused on bringing excitement back to the category and reminding people about our big brands.

And two big activations that worked very well for us in Q2 were the Kelcey Brothers promotion. This is where the Kelsey Brothers spontaneously mentioned on their podcast for favorite cereals for Reese’s Puffs, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Lucky Charms. And so we launched a new campaign with them to bring awareness to those brands that worked really well to improve unit growth. We also launched a new Kelcey mix new product, and we got great in-store activation from both and four times the media impressions that we did this time last year.

So we’re really encouraged by that work. And then this is the time of the year where we also have our Chex Party Mix promotion where Chex sells a lot of cereal to make party mix, and we focused on nostalgia. We had a Peanut’s strip comic promotion, a free tin on the pack, big surround campaign, and that also drove share. So what we’re learning is that when we get on our front foot and do what we’re good at, we see growth.

As we look to the back half of the year, we intend to take the same principles forward. We’re the leader of the category, so we have to behave like the leader. We will bring our new Game Day campaign. We have Cheerios Protein launching, Cheerios heart health, so we will keep progressing with remarkability across the mix.

I think we will continue to see progress in our market share.

Unknown speaker — BNP Paribas — Analyst

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Farrell. Your line is open.

Christopher Carey — Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I have a kind of like an M&A quick question then a bigger-picture follow-up. I know the guidance does not include the yogurt divestiture nor Whitebridge, but how do you see that two of these — or perhaps can you provide any color on how the two of these deals together may impact the dilution yogurt was seeing? I think low single-digit percentage dilutive, Whitebridge, fairly de minimis.

But is there — will you be using any of the proceeds from yogurt to fund Whitebridge? How do these two deals work together to inform implications for the model over the next 12 to 18 months? If you have any incremental color on that, I’d be curious then I have a quick follow-up.

Kofi A. Bruce — Chief Financial Officer

No. I think all, very fair. I think your read of the dilution impact on both those is in roughly the right range. What I would tell you is obviously Whitebridge just closed, so we are right on that today.

I think we are still, and it’s an important point, waiting closure of both legs of the yogurt divestiture. And so those aren’t leads in hand. And my expectation, though, is that there will still be substantial amount of proceeds going back into share repurchase activity. We are generally comfortable with the leverage range we’re running in, which is in kind of the low three times net debt-to-EBITDA area.

So I think that’s going to give us flexibility to both return cash to shareholders, as well as accommodate the modest amount of financing necessary for Whitebridge. We’ll obviously provide you guidance once we have started closing either in both legs of the divestitures which will have a much more material impact obviously on dilution expectations.

Jeff Siemon — Vice President, Investor Relations

I’ll just add — Kofi was able to give you the first glimpse. So we did actually get new year closing Whitebridge this morning, so you’ll see a release coming out later today on that news. So that’s good news for that deal.

Christopher Carey — Analyst

OK, OK. Great. A bigger-picture question. If we go back over the, I don’t know, many, many months at this point of sustained normalization in the broader packaged food space, Jeff has been vocal about various things that would need to happen to drive an uptick in promo activity if you think about — I don’t know how far that commentary goes back at this point.

And anyway, and here we are with the sector trends getting better. But clearly, based on today, not getting better or fast enough. And I realize there are caveats with Pillsbury and some other dynamics. But what do you think is your, I guess, bigger-picture assessment of just the slow pace of recovery here? I know GLP-1s and all these other things are mentioned which sometimes feel less tangible, but is it simply as simple as the consumer is seeking value? Are private-label operators becoming a lot more aggressive in going after consumers? How does this all kind of fit together to where we are today with clearly things taking longer? And if we can diagnose that, maybe there’s a chance to build a bit more confidence over the next 12 months.

I know it’s not an overly specific question, but if that incites any thoughts, I’d be curious. Thanks so much.

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Let me take a step back and answer that a little bit. As we look at over the last — I’m just going to take over the last five years or so, and what I would say is we’re getting back to an environment that is more normal — that is normalizing but not yet all the way back to normal. And you see that in the promotional environment where the levels of promotion, whether it’s frequency of discounting or depth of discounting, is about back to where it was in 2019.

And I would say the same for our margin structure. So if you look at our margins, our gross margins, our operating margins, given the guidance that we just gave, they’re at the same level, about maybe a little higher than they were in 2019. And there are ups and downs as there always are. But if you look versus five years ago, the margin structure is about the same, and our business is actually quite a bit larger.

And so the question is where do we go from here, and the answer is really where we go from here is making sure we’re responsive to consumer needs. And Dana talked a little bit about that through the remarkability framework. And us driving consumer view through promotional activity or whether it’s through new products, which are up 10% or whole campaigns, which you just highlighted in cereal or Jon highlighted in pet food. It is back to what consumers are looking for.

And so I think the environment will continue to normalize. As you say, there’s inflation. Our inflation, we said 3% to 4%. It’s about 4%, slightly higher than it was before.

And our productivity as we said 4% to 5% is now 5%, so our productivity is actually slightly higher than it was. And so I want you to know, we feel good about our increasing level of competitiveness and what we’ve done in the middle of our P&L to get this ability to maintain margins and to accelerate our growth at the same time. The tale of the tape really is about growth. At the end of the day, it’s about dollar growth.

Our pound growth is growing slightly faster than our market share growth at the moment. But one of the things we see is that tends to catch up over time if we’re taking the right activities, and we feel great about the activities we’re taking and the things we’re doing to drive increased consumption. And by the way, it started in the second quarter. It doesn’t start in the back half.

It actually started in the second quarter. Look at our market share gains. In the second quarter, 60% volume gains and 40% on dollar, significant increase from where we were in Q1. So we don’t have to wait until the back half for our competitiveness to improve, but it’s already started.

And that’s what gives us confidence in that metric. Yes, the investments are a little bit higher. So that is acknowledged. But it is investments, which is to say it’s not just spending.

It’s investments. And with investments, you get a return. And the return for us is our market share results, which are broad. And we’re very encouraged by that even if the investment levels are slightly higher than what we anticipated at the beginning of the year.

Christopher Carey — Analyst

Thanks for entertaining that. Good luck.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Steve Powers — Analyst

Yes. Hey, everybody. Good morning. Two quick ones for me.

The first one, just focusing on North American retail. If I — if we look at the consumption data this quarter, the yogurt business has actually been doing well in terms of accelerating growth. It’s actually — I think it’s contributed about 50 basis points to growth in the consumption data. I’m just curious if that’s consistent with the impact on reported results, just as we think about the underlying kind of run rate of the business with that business set for divestment? That’s question number one.

And then question number two is actually for Kofi. You mentioned the incentive comp reset in the back half. And as you said, that was contemplated from the start. But the language changed a little bit this quarter, and I think it said something like partial reset.

I’m assuming because of the guidance range today, the incentive comp build may not be 100%. So is there any kind of quantification of that the relative change versus prior, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Kofi A. Bruce — Chief Financial Officer

OK. I’ll let Dana start, and then I’ll pick up the second part of the question.

Dana McNabb — Group President, North America Retail

Right. So as you’ve rightly pointed out, the yogurt category is growing in Q2. It’s up about 10% year-to-date. But it’s in categories that we don’t compete in.

But we’re seeing it in weight management line, in the group protein line, the premium lines. The lines that we compete in, we’re actually losing share in. So when I look at what you’re seeing in terms of broad-based performance for North America Retail overall, they’re in our big businesses like cereal improving, soup improving, fruit snacks improving, chicken improving. So that’s how we look at the total portfolio and consider the divestiture to come.

Kofi A. Bruce — Chief Financial Officer

And then your second question on the impact of the incentive comp, the partial reset isn’t exactly the right read on that, which is we would have expected going into the year that we reset this to 100%. With the guidance adjustment, we now expect that we’ll pay out a little less than 100% but above last year’s rate. So that’s what the 2 points of drag I referenced it is.

Steve Powers — Analyst

OK, great. Thank you very much on both.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tom Palmer from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Tom Palmer — Analyst

Good morning. In past quarters, you’ve highlighted that your categories are growing 1% to 2%. And I think share losses was really the focus that needed to be mitigated. You gave some helpful commentary on the share loss side, but I wondered what you’re seeing for aggregate category growth.

Is that holding into the extent that you anticipated? Are there things you can do, especially in categories where you’re a quite large share to kind of stimulate the category as a whole?

Dana McNabb — Group President, North America Retail

Yes. From a North America retail perspective, great question, what I would say is that the commentary we’ve provided is still consistent. We’re seeing our categories normalize to pre–pandemic levels. They’re still in that 1% growth range.

And so the onus is on us to improve our competitiveness and make sure that we’re bringing a total product offering that is more remarkable than the competition across our product, packaging, in-store execution, and communication.

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And Jon, you want to comment on pet, maybe foodservice, and international a little bit.

Jonathon J. Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Yes. So on Pet, as I mentioned earlier, we’re seeing the category improve and start looking a lot more like it did pre pandemic in terms of humanization and premiumization growing and the category getting back to growth overall, which is terrific. Now obviously, it’s a huge world. We play in a pretty small part of it, and we really like the place that we play.

And we’re seeing a lot of growth really in non-restaurant types of bullets, things like schools, as well as away from home and airports, things like that. So that’s growing nicely for us. We’re growing a lot of share. And as Jeff mentioned, we’ve got quite a large share position in schools.

I like how that’s trending. We also have a big frozen breads business. So we’ve got a couple of key retailers that are driving a lot of growth for us with double-digits growth. So the area that we play in the food service is probably different than what most folks are seeing in terms of trends.

That’s quite advantaged, and we like our share positions there. In international, obviously, a big role that we have parts of the world that we really like what we’re seeing. In Europe, our team continues to deliver. The categories are starting to get back to pre-pandemic levels, similarly less, and we’re growing share.

Gems is our distributor markets. It’s our fastest growing and most profitable part of our international business, and that team’s doing a great job driving mid-single-digit top-line growth and grow share in most of our markets as well. So again, a mixed picture around the world. But generally, we like the way we’re performing at some of the headwinds that we’re seeing in China from a Haagen-Dazs standpoint.

Tom Palmer — Analyst

Also wanted to ask on expected margin trajectory for the pet segment. I know there were some timing benefits called out in North America retail. It sounded like the inventory benefits that you had this year were less so about this year having an unusual sales level in more prior years being maybe artificially low with inventory cuts. So I guess with that, if I look at the margin base that we’ve seen in the past couple of quarters has been more favorable year on year, is that something that can continue as we move through the back half of the year? Or are there timing or investment considerations for pet, in addition in North America?

Jonathon J. Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Yeah. Maybe I’ll take that one as well. So I think two things are happening in pet, both of them are really positive, and the team is doing a great job on the margin side. One, if you think about Blue Buffalo, it’s only been a part of General Mills for six years, and we’re starting to fully integrate all of our HMM tools.

And we’re seeing outsized HMM as a result of that. So again, the team has done a really nice job taking our know-how and experience, run HMM, and putting it to practice. And we’re starting to see the full effects of that. I think that will continue as we move toward the back half.

The thing that won’t is that we’ve internalized quite a bit of volume over the last year and we started doing that in the back half of last year. So we started lapping that. So I do believe that we’ll continue to make good margin progress over time. I don’t think you should expect to see the kind of margin gains that we’ve made more recently.

But again, we’re doing all the right things to keep driving our margins as we move forward.

Tom Palmer — Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Jeff Siemon — Vice President, Investor Relations

OK. Unfortunately, that’s — we’re going to have to cut it off there. I know we didn’t get to nearly as many people as we normally would like. I think our conversations probably went more in depth per question so sorry for everyone still in the queue.

Obviously, we’ll follow up later today to make sure that we get everyone’s questions answered. Thank you so much for the good engagement and for the time this morning. Happy holidays to everyone, and we’ll see you again in the new year.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Jeff Siemon — Vice President, Investor Relations

Jeffrey L. Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Andrew Lazar — Analyst

Jeff Harmening — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Jonathon J. Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Dana McNabb — Group President, North America Retail

Peter Peter Galbo — Analyst

Peter Galbo — Analyst

Jon Nudi — Group President, North America Pet, Foodservice, and International Segments

Ken Goldman — Analyst

Kofi A. Bruce — Chief Financial Officer

Leah Jordan — Analyst

Kofi Bruce — Chief Financial Officer

Unknown speaker — BNP Paribas — Analyst

Christopher Carey — Analyst

Chris Carey — Analyst

Steve Powers — Analyst

Tom Palmer — Analyst

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