Next month could be a make-or-break moment for Tesla.
After an incredible two-year run on the stock market, big tech hasn’t fared quite so well in 2025. Among the biggest laggards in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks is Tesla (TSLA 1.93%), whose shares have declined 15% year to date (as of May 15).
While this sell-off makes Tesla one of the poorest performers among the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, that may soon change.
Let’s explore why June is going to be such a pivotal month for Tesla’s future. And more importantly, I’ll take a look at more recent trends surrounding Tesla stock to help assess whether now is a good time to pounce on shares before they potentially go parabolic in a few weeks.
What is happening in June for Tesla?
Tesla derives the majority of its revenue and profits from selling electric vehicles (EVs). Unfortunately, Tesla’s EV business has hit a road bump, and growth has stalled. While most management teams wouldn’t be thrilled by these dynamics, Tesla CEO Elon Musk seems quite confident in the direction the company is headed.
The reason? Musk’s vision isn’t just for Tesla to sell EVs. Rather, he has his sights set on building an autonomous vehicle fleet to ferry passengers around — an ambition known as Robotaxi.
Per Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, Musk is committed to launching the first Robotaxi rides next month in Austin, Texas.
Image source: Getty Images.
Two reasons why investors should be careful
Robotaxi has been one of the pillars supporting the bull thesis around Tesla stock for years. Now, it seems like the company has finally built enough vehicles to launch its first paid service and compete with other ridehailing businesses such as Uber, Lyft, and Waymo.
As an investor in Tesla myself, I am really excited about the Robotaxi launch. However, this is not the first time Tesla has hyped up a new product, and I know that remaining grounded right now is the prudent strategy because Tesla does have a history of missing deadlines. While the company often follows through on its ambitions, it’s not always according to Musk’s stated timeline. Since a core part of the AI thesis around Tesla is rooted in the Robotaxi business being successful, any delay in the launch is a red flag.
Let’s be optimistic here and say Tesla does pull off the launch next month. While that’s exciting, investors need to be realistic. It’s going to take time for Robotaxi to scale and acquire customers.
This is precisely why Musk signaled to investors that “the real question from [a] financial standpoint is when does it really become material and affect [the] bottom line of the company.” According to him, Robotaxi will begin to “move the financial needle” toward the middle of next year.
Is Tesla stock a buy right now?
The fact that Robotaxi will initially be an immaterial contributor to Tesla from a financial standpoint is important. As is often the case with Tesla stock, shares experience fleeting volatility based on narratives — both positive and negative.
If Tesla does indeed launch Robotaxi next month in Austin, my hunch is that shares will skyrocket. In fact, the chart below shows that Tesla stock has been creeping up as of late — and there’s no clear reason.
Data by YCharts.
Sure, positive developments around tariff negotiations are likely playing a role in Tesla’s recent gains (along with those of the broad market overall). But there is still little clarity around how these negotiations are affecting Tesla’s business specifically.
At least with Robotaxi, Musk has already warned investors not to put too much weight on the early results, indicating that it will take time for the business to scale and become a meaningful new source of sales and profits. That said, expectations remain high, and if the Robotaxi launch is delayed or flops, Tesla stock could plummet.
For these reasons, I suggest sitting on the sidelines regarding an investment in Tesla right now. Austin is only one market for Robotaxi, which is expected to become a global operation over time. If Robotaxi does prove to be a lucrative extension of Tesla’s EV business, investors will have ample opportunities to invest in the stock as the business evolves into more of an AI player than a car manufacturer.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.