Where Will Intuitive Machines Stock Be in 1 Year?

Intuitive Machines‘ (LUNR -6.11%) stock has more than doubled over the past 12 months. The producer of lunar landing and exploration vehicles impressed investors after it achieved its first lunar landing, secured new NASA contracts, and expanded its ride-sharing service to send more third-party payloads to the moon. But could it soar even higher over the next 12 months?

What happened to Intuitive Machines over the past two years?

Intuitive Machines went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) two years ago, and the combined company’s stock started trading at $10 on its first day and skyrocketed to its all-time high of $81.99 a week later.

At the time, it impressed investors with its three major contracts with NASA, its plans to launch its Nova-C lunar lander, and its bold revenue forecasts. But after its public debut, it postponed the Nova-C’s launch and secured fewer contracts. Rising interest rates also drove investors away from speculative SPAC-backed companies. By Jan. 4, 2024, its stock had dropped to an all-time low of $2.11. However, a $1,000 investment in its stock on that fateful day would be worth nearly $9,000 today.

Intuitive’s stock surged after it finally landed its first Nova-C lander, named Odysseus, on the moon on Feb. 22, 2024. That marked the first successful U.S. moon landing since 1972, and it drove NASA to award the Intuitive with four new contracts — a lunar terrain vehicle contract, a commercial lunar payload services (CLPS) contract, an exclusive near-space network contract, and a lunar logistics solutions contract — over the following year. As a result, Intuitive’s quarterly backlog hit a record high of $316 million in the third quarter of 2024, and it expects its annual revenue to surge from $80 million in 2023 to a range of $215 million to $235 million in 2024. Analysts expect its revenue to climb 188% to $229 million for the year.

What are Intuitive Machines’ near-term catalysts?

On Jan. 28, Intuitive Machines delivered Athena, its second lunar lander, to Cape Canaveral, Florida, as part of its CLPS contract wtih NASA. It’s currently targeting a “four-day launch window that opens no earlier than Feb. 26” for the lander, and a successful launch could drive Intuitive’s stock even higher over the next few months.

Intuitive’s partnership with Columbia Sportswear, which is using its Omni-Shade and Omni-Heat Infinity fabrics to shield the Athena’s vital systems, might also attract some more attention from other consumer-facing companies that want to generate similar publicity for their brands. Those commercial partnerships could reduce its overall costs.

As Intuitive expands, it could secure more contracts from NASA, other space agencies, and commercial customers for its ride-sharing business. Assuming those tailwinds kick in, analysts expect its revenue to rise 57% to $360 million in 2025 as its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) turn positive.

With an enterprise value of $1.8 billion, Intuitive still looks reasonably valued at five times this year’s sales. It’s more than doubled its share count over the past year, but that dilution isn’t too surprising because it needs to keep raising fresh cash with secondary offerings while covering its stock-based compensation and recent warrant redemptions.

At the end of its latest quarter, Intuitive held nearly $90 million in cash and equivalents with zero debt. During the follow-up conference call, CEO Stephen Altemus said it still had “ample liquidity” for its “blueprint to commercialize the moon.”

Where will Intuitive Machines’ stock be in a year?

Intuitive Machines is still a speculative stock, but it should head higher over the next 12 months if Athena lands and it gains more contracts. Declining interest rates could also drive more investors back toward this high-growth space stock.