Here’s what needs to happen for XRP to double in price this year.
There’s arguably no hotter cryptocurrency on the planet right now than XRP (XRP -2.86%). It’s now up more than 140% during the past three months, and shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. In 2025, it’s already up 14%, making it the top-performing major cryptocurrency.
But does XRP have enough gas in the tank to reach $5 in 2025? Given its current price of about $2.65, it would require XRP to almost double in price within a relatively short period of time. It’s not impossible, but here are three things that would need to happen.
Continued expansion and growth at Ripple
The company that created the XRP crypto token is Ripple, a San Francisco-based blockchain technology company. Unfortunately, for more than four years, Ripple has been locked in an epic court battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In December 2020, the SEC claimed that XRP was a security and that company sales of it violated securities laws. Ever since, there have been dark regulatory clouds hanging over XRP.
That’s why the pro-crypto approach of the Trump administration is so important to the future of XRP. It’s leading to the types of regulatory changes — such as a big shakeup at the SEC and the creation of a new regulatory framework for crypto — that are presumably going to make it much easier for Ripple to get back to business as usual.
Indeed, we’re already starting to see what’s possible if the regulatory shackles are removed. In 2025, Ripple is once again lining up new financial services partners for its XRP-powered payments and transfers network. It’s launching new financial products to bolster the integration and adoption of XRP, and it’s once again actively hiring in the U.S. If you’re bullish on XRP, this is exactly what you want to see happen as proof of continued expansion and growth.
New spot ETFs for XRP
Another important catalyst that might spur XRP to double in price this year is the launch of new crypto spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). A growing number of investment firms have already filed spot XRP ETF applications with the SEC, including some that already offer spot Bitcoin ETFs.
So it seems to be a no-brainer that at least one of those applications is eventually going to get approved. The big question is: When? The original thinking was that the Trump White House would open the floodgates for new SEC approvals, and some thought that spot XRP ETFs might be arriving as soon as the first quarter of this year.
Image source: Getty Images.
The current thinking is that new spot XRP ETFs might start trading by mid-2025. If they do, they have the potential to unlock a torrent of new money for XRP. According to JPMorgan Chase, as much as $8 billion in new money might flow into XRP. If the bulk of that money comes from long-term institutional investors, all the better, since it will help to drive out the short-term speculators trying to make a quick buck on XRP.
XRP could be added to a national digital assets stockpile
One of the most interesting crypto storylines of 2025 is the potential creation of a U.S. digital assets reserve. Originally, this was going to be a Bitcoin-only stockpile known as the strategic Bitcoin reserve. But a number of top crypto executives are now advocating that this strategic reserve also hold other top cryptocurrencies that are vital to America’s long-term interests.
No surprises here, but top Ripple executives have been in contact with the Trump White House, making the case that XRP — as a U.S. crypto token helping to power payment flows with other nations — should also be part of the stockpile.
If the U.S. government does decide to add XRP to the mix, that would be huge, given the sheer size of the proposed national digital assets stockpile. The current thinking is that the U.S. government will commit to buying 200,000 Bitcoins per year, for the next five years. At today’s Bitcoin price of about $100,000, that’s roughly $20 billion per year. Now imagine the U.S. government also buys $20 billion worth of XRP each year! That probably would dwarf any money flowing into XRP via the new spot ETFs.
How realistic is a price of $5 for XRP?
One way to get a quick sense of the market sentiment surrounding XRP is by checking out the activity on online prediction markets such as Polymarket. There, participants are risking actual fiat money (not crypto funny money) on the outcomes of various events. This makes these predictions much more reliable than the typical ones you see on social media, where there is no cost for being wrong.
Right now, only 17% of people think that XRP will be added to a national digital assets stockpile in 2025. When it comes to new XRP investment products, only 45% of people think that a spot XRP ETF approval will arrive before July 31.
Based on these numbers, you shouldn’t be putting too much trust in XRP hitting $5 in 2025. After all, two of the key catalysts that could boost the fortunes of XRP have a less than 50% chance of happening this year. While XRP will likely continue to outperform the crypto market this year, definitely keep your expectations in check.
