ServiceNow, Toast, and Affirm all have a bright future.
Many high-growth stocks rallied over the past year in expectation of lower interest rates, boosting their stock prices and their valuations in the process. But because of those gains, some investors might be wary of chasing those highfliers now, especially as the real potential for new tariffs and trade conflicts threaten to end the current bull market (which started in October 2022).
Long-term investors shouldn’t be afraid to invest in top tech companies that have plenty of room to grow over the next few decades. I believe these three long-term winners are still worth buying in this frothy market: ServiceNow (NOW -1.94%), Toast (TOST 0.70%), and Affirm (AFRM -2.32%). Here’s why.
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ServiceNow
ServiceNow’s cloud-based digital workflow platform cleans up unstructured work patterns and makes it easier for companies to expand efficiently, cut costs, and provide better support for their hybrid and remote workers. Its Now Assist AI platform further accelerates that process with AI-powered chatbots and automation tools for employees.
Its business model is well insulated from the macroeconomic headwinds since many companies use its tools to streamline their operations during economic downturns. Its adjusted revenue rose 23.5% in 2023 and 22.5% in 2024, and analysts expect it to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% over the next three years. It’s also profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, and analysts expect its earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a CAGR of 28% from 2024 to 2027.
ServiceNow expects its long-term growth to be driven by new government contracts and the rising usage of Now Assist’s AI tools. During its latest conference call in January, CEO Bill McDermott called his company the “control tower for AI transformation” and said it’s clear its “AI platform message is landing, and it’s scaling.”
ServiceNow’s stock might not seem cheap at 15 times this year’s sales, but it’s poised to grow over the next few decades. Its ecosystem is sticky, it’s resistant to recessions, and it’s well exposed to the booming cloud and AI markets.
Toast
Toast sells point-of-sale (POS) payment systems, guest-facing and kitchen displays, and cloud-based services for managing payrolls, loyalty plans, online orders, and reservations. Simply put, it’s a one-stop shop for digitizing a restaurant.
Toast served 48,000 restaurants when it went public in 2021, but that figure had grown to nearly 127,000 restaurants in its latest quarter. It expanded even as the pandemic and inflation disrupted the restaurant industry over the past five years.
To keep growing, Toast is expanding its higher-margin subscription services and financial technology solutions segment (which provides its ancillary services) to reduce its dependence on its low-margin payment processing fees. It also streamlined its business with major rounds of layoffs in 2020 and 2024, and it continues to cut its other expenses.
Toast’s revenue rose 60% in 2022 and 42% in 2023, and analysts expect its revenue to grow at a CAGR of 24% from 2023 to 2026 as its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rises at a CAGR of 129%. Its business is gradually maturing, but it could still have plenty of room to grow as it digitizes more brick-and-mortar restaurants. That’s a bright outlook for a stock that trades at just 4 times next year’s sales.
Affirm
Affirm is a top provider of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services. It splits purchases into smaller installment plans through “microloans,” which are attractive options for younger or lower-income consumers who can’t get approved for credit cards.
It doesn’t charge any interest on payments split into four installments, and it doesn’t charge any compound interest or hidden fees for any of its payments. It’s also an attractive payment option for big merchants, which can often negotiate lower BNPL fees than the 1.5% to 3.5% swipe fees charged by most credit card networks.
Affirm’s revenue only rose 18% in fiscal 2023 (which ended in June 2023) as it lapped its pandemic-driven growth spurt and faced tougher inflationary headwinds. But in fiscal 2024, its revenue grew 46% as it gained more merchants, issued its Affirm Card (which combines a debit card with BNPL options) to more consumers, and benefited from higher travel and general merchandise sales. By the end of its latest quarter, its loans that were delinquent for over 30 days held steady at just 2.8%.
From fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, analysts expect Affirm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 28% as the macro environment stabilizes again. Its adjusted EBITDA is also expected to turn positive in fiscal 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 327% over the following two years. It might not seem cheap at 10 times this year’s sales, but it could be a great long-term play on the secular expansion of the nascent BNPL market and the disruption of traditional credit cards.
